About

Cardiovascular disease prevention requires accurate risk stratification. This tool implements the Pooled Cohort Equations (PCE) from the ACC/AHA guidelines to estimate the 10-year risk of a first ASCVD event (heart attack or stroke). It is designed for adults aged 40-79 without prior history of cardiovascular disease. By analyzing lipid levels, blood pressure, and diabetic status, it classifies patients into Low, Borderline, Intermediate, or High risk categories, helping to inform decisions regarding Statin Therapy and lifestyle modifications.

Formulas

The risk is calculated using a log-linear regression model specific to Race and Sex:

Risk = 1 − S₁₀^{exp(IndX − MeanX)}

Where IndX is the sum of coefficients multiplied by natural logs of Age, Total Cholesterol, HDL, and Systolic BP, plus interaction terms. S₁₀ is the baseline survival rate.

Reference Data

Risk Category	10-Year Risk %	Clinical Recommendation (ACC/AHA)
Low Risk	< 5%	Lifestyle changes recommended. Statins generally not indicated.
Borderline	5% to 7.4%	Consider Moderate-intensity statin if risk enhancers present.
Intermediate	7.5% to 19.9%	Initiate Moderate-intensity statin. Discuss benefits/risks.
High Risk	≥ 20%	Initiate High-intensity statin to reduce LDL-C by ≥50%.

Frequently Asked Questions

This tool is intended for primary prevention in adults aged 40-79 with LDL-C between 70-190 mg/dL, who do not have established heart disease.

Current smoker signifies a person who has smoked cigarettes in the last 30 days.

This tool is for educational purposes only. It does not replace professional medical advice. Decisions on Statin therapy should involve a detailed discussion between patient and physician.