About

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) remains the leading cause of death globally. Early prediction is the most powerful tool a clinician has. The SCORE2 (Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation 2) algorithm is the updated 2021 standard recommended by the European Society of Cardiology (ESC). Unlike the older SCORE model which only predicted fatal events, SCORE2 estimates the 10-year risk of both fatal and non-fatal CVD events (myocardial infarction, stroke) in apparently healthy people aged 40–69.

This tool is strictly calibrated to the four distinct European risk regions defined by the WHO and ESC. Accurate risk assessment requires this regional adjustment because a 50-year-old smoker in a 'Low Risk' country (like France) has a significantly different statistical probability of a heart attack than the same profile in a 'Very High Risk' country (like Bulgaria). This calculator applies the specific coefficients for your selected region.

Formulas

The SCORE2 algorithm utilizes a proportional hazards model (like Weibull) calibrated to regional mortality data. The conceptual function is:

Risk = 1 − S₀(t)^{exp(β_ageAge + β_cholChol + β_sbpSBP + β_smokSmoke)}

This tool uses a simplified granular lookup based on the official ESC SCORE2 charts for ages 40-69.

Reference Data

Risk Region	Example Countries	Description
Low Risk	Belgium, Denmark, France, Israel, Luxembourg, Norway, Spain, Switzerland, UK, Netherlands	Countries with low CVD mortality rates.
Moderate Risk	Austria, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal, Sweden, Malta, Finland	Countries with moderate CVD trends.
High Risk	Albania, Bosnia, Croatia, Czechia, Hungary, Poland, Romania, Slovakia, Turkey	Countries with elevated CVD mortality.
Very High Risk	Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Bulgaria, Egypt, Georgia, Latvia, Lithuania, Moldova, Russia, Ukraine	Countries with the highest CVD mortality rates.

Frequently Asked Questions

SCORE2 is designed for apparently healthy individuals aged 40–69 without established cardiovascular disease (CVD), diabetes, chronic kidney disease, or familial hypercholesterolaemia. If you have these conditions, you are automatically considered 'High' or 'Very High' risk, and this calculator may underestimate your actual risk.

Non-HDL Cholesterol is your Total Cholesterol minus your HDL (Good) Cholesterol. It represents all the 'bad' atherogenic lipoproteins (LDL, VLDL, IDL). It is a better predictor of risk than LDL alone.

The result is a percentage probability of having a heart attack or stroke in the next 10 years. 7.5% is generally High Risk (thresholds vary slightly by age). High-risk results typically trigger a recommendation for lifestyle changes or statin therapy.

The SCORE2 algorithm was specifically calibrated for this age group. For individuals aged 70 and older, the SCORE2-OP (Older Persons) algorithm is used, which has different competing risk adjustments.