About

The Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE) model is a pivotal tool in preventative cardiology, designed to estimate the 10-year probability of a fatal cardiovascular event. Unlike simple cholesterol checks, this multivariate model integrates age, gender, systolic blood pressure, and smoking status to generate a comprehensive risk profile. It is specifically calibrated for European populations, distinguishing between high-risk and low-risk geographic regions to ensure statistical accuracy.

Clinicians and patients utilize this data to determine the necessity of statin therapy or lifestyle interventions. The distinction between risk regions is critical; a blood pressure reading that yields a moderate risk in a low-risk country may indicate severe risk in a high-risk region due to underlying population health variances. This tool employs the official Weibull regression coefficients to provide precise, color-coded risk stratifications, aiding in the rapid assessment of cardiovascular health.

Formulas

The SCORE risk estimation is based on a Weibull proportional hazards model. The probability of survival S at time t is calculated, and the risk is the complement.

Risk = 1 − S₀(age)^exp(w)

Where the weighted sum w is defined by the coefficients β for each risk factor:

w = β_chol⋅(TC − 6) + β_SBP⋅(SBP − 120) + β_smoke⋅Smoker

Reference Data

Risk Category	10-Year Fatal Risk	Clinical Interpretation	Action Threshold
Low Risk	< 1%	Negligible probability of fatal event.	Lifestyle advice.
Moderate Risk	1−4%	Elevated baseline risk.	Consider lifestyle changes, monitor.
High Risk	5−9%	Significant danger of CVD event.	Intensify risk factor management.
Very High Risk	≥ 10%	Critical condition requiring intervention.	Drug therapy (Statins/Antihypertensives).
High Risk Region	Eastern Europe	Higher baseline mortality rates.	Use High-Risk Coefficients.
Low Risk Region	Western Europe	Lower baseline mortality rates.	Use Low-Risk Coefficients.

Frequently Asked Questions

Cardiovascular mortality rates vary significantly across Europe due to genetic, environmental, and dietary factors. The ESC provides two distinct calibration sets to prevent overestimation of risk in Western Europe or underestimation in Eastern Europe.

The standard SCORE algorithm is validated for individuals between 40 and 65 years of age. For patients outside this range, the predictive accuracy decreases, and other evaluation methods may be preferred.

Smoking is a binary multiplier in the Weibull equation. It significantly increases the exponent in the risk formula, often doubling or tripling the estimated 10-year mortality risk compared to a non-smoker with identical blood pressure and cholesterol.

This calculator estimates the probability of dying from a cardiovascular event (heart attack, stroke, aneurysm) within the next 10 years. It does not predict non-fatal events, though the risk of non-fatal events is typically three times higher than the risk of fatal ones.