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About

In the high-stakes environment of cardiac surgery, accurate risk stratification is not just a statistical exercise—it is a cornerstone of clinical decision-making and patient consent. The EuroSCORE II (European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation) is the updated gold standard model designed to predict in-hospital mortality.

This tool is essential for cardiac surgeons, cardiologists, and anesthetists who need to objectively assess a patient's preoperative profile. By factoring in 18 distinct clinical variables—ranging from renal function to the urgency of the procedure—this calculator provides a percentage-based probability of mortality. This data assists in determining the viability of surgical intervention, benchmarking quality of care, and managing patient expectations with transparency and precision.

cardiology surgery risk mortality prediction EuroSCORE

Formulas

The EuroSCORE II is calculated using a logistic regression equation. The probability of mortality is derived from the linear combination of coefficients and patient variables.

Risk = eL1 + eL

Where L is the linear predictor calculated as:

L = k + cage + cgender + crenal + ... + cproc

Where k is the constant (-5.324537) and c represents the coefficient for each specific risk factor present.

Reference Data

Risk Factor CategoryVariableLogistic Coefficient (β)Clinical Definition
Patient FactorsAge (per 5 years over 60)0.02852Continuous risk increase for every year over 60.
Renal DysfunctionCreatinine >200 μmol/L0.85922Severe renal impairment significantly increases post-op complications.
Cardiac StateNYHA Class IV0.55602Patient has cardiac symptoms at rest.
Cardiac StateLVEF < 20% (Poor)0.93632Severely reduced Left Ventricular Ejection Fraction.
ProcedureEmergency0.70391Operation required before the beginning of the next working day.
ProcedureWeight of Intervention (Double)0.00621e.g., CABG + Valve repair.
ProcedureSurgery on Thoracic Aorta0.65272Involves repair or replacement of the thoracic aorta.
Patient FactorsDiabetes on Insulin0.35427Insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus (IDDM).

Frequently Asked Questions

The original additive EuroSCORE often overestimated risk in high-risk patients and was based on older surgical data. EuroSCORE II uses a logistic regression model calibrated on more recent patient data, providing a more accurate prediction of modern surgical outcomes.
Renal impairment is categorized by serum creatinine levels. 'Moderate' is 50-85 ml/min, 'Severe' is <50 ml/min, and 'Dialysis' indicates the patient is currently on dialysis, which carries the highest risk coefficient in this category.
This is defined as patients requiring ventricular tachycardia/fibrillation or aborted sudden death, preoperative cardiac massage, preoperative ventilation before arrival in the anesthetic room, preoperative inotropes or IABP, or acute renal failure (anuria or oliguria <10ml/hr).
No. EuroSCORE II is specifically validated for adult cardiac surgery. Pediatric risk stratification requires different models such as the RACHS-1 or Aristotle Score due to congenital complexities.