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$
10%
0% 25% 50%
2.0%
0% 10% 20%
8x
1x 25x 50x
12 mo
Projected MRR $0 +0%
Projected ARR $0 Annual Run Rate
Est. Valuation $0 @ 8x ARR
Revenue Trajectory
Investor Pitch Snippet
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About

Accurate revenue forecasting is the backbone of strategic planning and fundraising. This tool goes beyond simple compound interest by integrating industry-specific benchmarks for Growth Rates, Churn, and Valuation Multiples. It allows founders and analysts to model scenarios based on real market data rather than guesswork.

Understanding the difference between Gross Growth and Net Revenue Retention (NRR) is critical. A high growth rate masked by high churn results in a leaky bucket model, which kills valuations. This calculator visualizes the trajectory of your Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) and estimates potential company valuation based on current market multiples.

revenue-forecasting startup-valuation mrr-arr-calculator churn-analysis investor-metrics

Formulas

The calculator projects future revenue using a discrete time-series model. For each period t (months), the revenue R is calculated by applying the Net Growth Rate.

Rt = Rt-1 × (1 + gmom cchurn)Where:gmom = Month-over-Month Growth Rate (%)cchurn = Monthly Churn Rate (%)

Valuation Estimation:

Valuation is estimated based on the projected Annualized Run Rate (ARR) at month t multiplied by the industry multiple M.

Vest = (Rt × 12) × M

Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR):

CAGR = (RfinalRstart)12t 1

Reference Data

Industry SectorAvg. MoM GrowthGood Annual ChurnValuation Multiple (ARR)Key Metric Focus
B2B SaaS (Enterprise)5% - 8%6% - 10%8x - 15xNet Dollar Retention (NDR)
B2B SaaS (SMB)3% - 6%15% - 30%5x - 10xCustomer Acquisition Cost (CAC)
Fintech / Payments7% - 12%10% - 15%10x - 20xGross Transaction Value (GTV)
Consumer App (Sub)5% - 15%30% - 50%4x - 8xDaily Active Users (DAU)
E-commerce (D2C)10% - 20%N/A (Repurchase Rate)1x - 3xContribution Margin
Marketplace (2-sided)8% - 15%20% (Supply Side)5x - 12xGross Merchandise Value (GMV)
EdTech4% - 9%20% - 40%4x - 9xLifetime Value (LTV)
HealthTech5% - 10%5% - 12%6x - 14xRegulatory Moat
Cybersecurity6% - 10%5% - 8%9x - 18xLogo Retention
AI / Deep Tech10% - 25%5% - 15%15x - 50xTechnology IP
Agency / Service2% - 5%20% - 30%1x - 2xEBITDA Margin
Logistics / Supply Chain3% - 7%10% - 20%3x - 6xVolume Density
Hardware (IoT)5% - 10%10% (Software)3x - 7xHardware Margin + Recurring

Frequently Asked Questions

MRR (Monthly Recurring Revenue) is the normalized monthly revenue from active subscriptions. ARR (Annual Recurring Revenue) is simply MRR multiplied by 12. ARR is the standard metric for valuation in SaaS and subscription businesses, as it represents the annualized run rate.
Multiples vary by industry, market conditions (Bear vs. Bull market), and growth rate. A "Rule of 40" company (Growth % + Profit % > 40) commands higher multiples (10x-20x ARR). Slower growing or lower margin businesses may see 1x-3x ARR. Check the Industry Benchmarks table above for guidance.
Churn compounds negatively. If you grow 10% but lose 5% of your customer base, your net growth is only 5%. As your revenue base grows, replacing that 5% becomes harder in absolute dollars. This is why "Net Negative Churn" (upsells exceeding cancellations) is the holy grail of SaaS.
It refers to a graph showing a short period of flat growth (the blade) followed by a sharp increase (the handle). This is typical for startups finding product-market fit. This calculator assumes you are entering the "handle" phase where compounding takes full effect.
This tool uses a constant MoM growth model, which smooths out seasonality. For detailed budgeting involving seasonal dips (e.g., e-commerce in January), a spreadsheet with month-specific adjustments is recommended, but this tool is perfect for long-term trend analysis.
Copy the generated text directly into your Investor Deck, Executive Summary, or Cold Emails. It formats your data into professional financial prose, highlighting your trajectory and potential valuation, which signals competence to investors.